Description
Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics website (https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepren…)
and complete this forecasting assignment according to the directions
provided in the “Forecasting Case Study: New Business
Planning” resource.
Use an Excel spreadsheet file for the calculations and explanations.
Cells should contain the formulas (if a formula was used to calculate
the entry in that cell). Students are highly encouraged to use the
Excel resource, “Forecasting Template,” to complete this assignment.
Mac users can use StatPlus:mac LE, free of charge, from AnalystSoft.
Prepare the assignment according to the guidelines found in the APA
Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center. An abstract is not required.
This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to
beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for
successful completion.
Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning
Important Note: Students must access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order to complete this assignment.
Scenario
The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new
jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new
business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of
Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new
businesses in the United States.
Forecasting
Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
website. Under the “Business establishment age” heading, the first chart reviews new businesses
less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link
below the chart:
Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1
year old for each year during this period:
Using the five most recent years and the “Forecasting Template” spreadsheet provided, complete
the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median
absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the
analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the
best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in
the United States.
2
Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Moving averages – 2 period moving average
3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
39
40.5
39
Total
Average
Bias
Period 6
Period 7
50
44
47.5
Average
Squared
Abs Pct Err
2
2
4
04.88%
-3.5
3.5
12.25
09.46%
6
6
36
13.33%
4.5
11.5
52.25
27.67%
1.5 3.8333333 17.416667
09.22% before forecast
MAD
MSE
MAPE
2.5
2.5
6.25
05.00%
after forecast period 6
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Forecast
5
Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Moving averages – 3 period moving average
3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
50
44
Squared
Abs Pct Err
39.666667 -2.666667 2.6666667 7.1111111
07.21%
39.333333 5.6666667 5.6666667 32.111111
12.59%
Total
3 8.3333333 39.222222
19.80%
Average
1.5 4.1666667 19.611111
09.90%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
44
6
6
36
12.00%
Average
after forecast period 6
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Forecast
5
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Exponential smoothing
0.3
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
50
44
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
38
0
0
38
2
2
38.6
2.4
2.4
39.32
-2.32
2.32
38.624
6.376
6.376
Total
8.456
13.096
Average
1.6912
2.6192
Bias
MAD
SE
40.5368
9.4632
9.4632
Average
Bias
MAD
Squared
Abs Pct Err
0
0.00%
4
5.00%
5.76
5.85%
5.3824
6.27%
40.653376
14.17%
55.795776
31.29%
11.159155
06.26% Before forecast
MSE
MAPE
4.3126085
89.552154
18.93%
after forecast period 6
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
38
Forecasting
3
Time
38
38
4
Forecasting
Alpha
Beta
Data
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
0.3
0.7
Period
Demand
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
38
40
41
37
45
Next period
41.168341
Next period
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Smoothed
Including
Forecast, Smoothed Trend,
Error
Absolute Squared
Abs Pct Err
Ft
Trend, Tt FITt
38
38
0
0
0
00.00%
38
0
38
2
2
4
05.00%
38.6
0.42
39.02
1.98
1.98
3.9204
04.83%
39.614
0.8358
40.4498
-3.4498
3.4498 11.90112
09.32%
39.41486 0.111342 39.526202 5.473798 5.473798 29.962465
0.12164
41.168341 1.2608396 42.429181
Total
6.003998 12.9036 49.783985
31.32%
Average
1.2007996 2.58072 9.9567969
06.26%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE 4.0736546
42.050929 0.6178114 42.668741
Total
Average
Bias
MAD
SE
MSE
MAPE
0
50
45
40
35
Value
30
After forecast
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Forecasting
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Smoothed Forecast, Ft
5
Purchase answer to see full
attachment
Important Note: Students must access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order to complete this assignment.
Scenario
The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new
jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new
business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of
Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new
businesses in the United States.
Forecasting
Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
website. Under the “Business establishment age” heading, the first chart reviews new businesses
less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link
below the chart:
Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1
year old for each year during this period:
Using the five most recent years and the “Forecasting Template” spreadsheet provided, complete
the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median
absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error
(MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the
analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the
best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in
the United States.
2
Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Moving averages – 2 period moving average
3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
39
40.5
39
Total
Average
Bias
Period 6
Period 7
50
44
47.5
Average
Squared
Abs Pct Err
2
2
4
04.88%
-3.5
3.5
12.25
09.46%
6
6
36
13.33%
4.5
11.5
52.25
27.67%
1.5 3.8333333 17.416667
09.22% before forecast
MAD
MSE
MAPE
2.5
2.5
6.25
05.00%
after forecast period 6
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Forecast
5
Forecasting
Num pds
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Moving averages – 3 period moving average
3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
50
44
Squared
Abs Pct Err
39.666667 -2.666667 2.6666667 7.1111111
07.21%
39.333333 5.6666667 5.6666667 32.111111
12.59%
Total
3 8.3333333 39.222222
19.80%
Average
1.5 4.1666667 19.611111
09.90%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
44
6
6
36
12.00%
Average
after forecast period 6
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Forecast
5
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Exponential smoothing
0.3
Demand
38
40
41
37
45
50
44
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute
38
0
0
38
2
2
38.6
2.4
2.4
39.32
-2.32
2.32
38.624
6.376
6.376
Total
8.456
13.096
Average
1.6912
2.6192
Bias
MAD
SE
40.5368
9.4632
9.4632
Average
Bias
MAD
Squared
Abs Pct Err
0
0.00%
4
5.00%
5.76
5.85%
5.3824
6.27%
40.653376
14.17%
55.795776
31.29%
11.159155
06.26% Before forecast
MSE
MAPE
4.3126085
89.552154
18.93%
after forecast period 6
MSE
MAPE
Forecasting
50
45
40
Value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
38
Forecasting
3
Time
38
38
4
Forecasting
Alpha
Beta
Data
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
0.3
0.7
Period
Demand
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
38
40
41
37
45
Next period
41.168341
Next period
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Smoothed
Including
Forecast, Smoothed Trend,
Error
Absolute Squared
Abs Pct Err
Ft
Trend, Tt FITt
38
38
0
0
0
00.00%
38
0
38
2
2
4
05.00%
38.6
0.42
39.02
1.98
1.98
3.9204
04.83%
39.614
0.8358
40.4498
-3.4498
3.4498 11.90112
09.32%
39.41486 0.111342 39.526202 5.473798 5.473798 29.962465
0.12164
41.168341 1.2608396 42.429181
Total
6.003998 12.9036 49.783985
31.32%
Average
1.2007996 2.58072 9.9567969
06.26%
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE 4.0736546
42.050929 0.6178114 42.668741
Total
Average
Bias
MAD
SE
MSE
MAPE
0
50
45
40
35
Value
30
After forecast
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
Forecasting
1
2
3
4
Time
Demand
Smoothed Forecast, Ft
5
Purchase answer to see full
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